Thoughts on Leopold going tits up - big lesson in this
As someone who has been invested in a handful of Leopold investments before he came onto the scene, want to share my thoughts on what I believe happened here. Leopold is obviously a brilliant mind and was able to identify a lot of these themes/trends before almost everyone else. But having a brilliant mind and understanding the ruthless nature of capital markets are entirely different things. As of last year (iirc, firing this at the hip btw so may get some things a bit wrong) he was directionally long with shares and options. That is great, and he had a phenomenal year. The first sign of concern was the 13-f this spring where we saw a bunch of puts and other shorts, even some on software (which had already been taken to the woodshed), and at this point the fund had became a bit of an over levered clusterfuck It’s been disclosed that citadel was the (gracious) recipient of his liquidated book. They also announced their belief a rate hike was coming earlier this week. I’m fairly confide
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My Bear Case for nVidia
Apologies for the stream of consciousness. It's almost 3AM and I've been benchmarking LLMs for the past 8 hours: Back when DeepSeek R1 came out, we saw the market react to the realization that a viable LLM doesn't need to be trained on the volume of cutting edge nVidia hardware you can only get on the white market. R1 was good. It wasn't the best, but it was a wake-up call for the west... that rhyme was not intentional... Over the past few days, we saw 2 insane releases from Chinese labs. Kimi, which was trained on a mix of nVidia and Chinese chips, crept up to Opus 4.8 territory. And Qwen3.8, which came out Monday morning (Chinese time) and performs similarly to Kimi, and it was trained exclusively on domestic Chinese hardware -- proving nVidia's not even needed to train a SotA model. Even domestically (in the US), Everyone and their mother has been working on training and inference ASICs and infra which will eventually displace nVidia hardware. Jensen's not dumb, so he's trying to ke
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