FOMC Preview
The Tragedy or Comedy of Inflation (fyi – Hamlet is a tragedy) Act I: The Triumph The curtain rose on the June FOMC press conference with Kevin Warsh cast in the leading role. Stepping confidently to center stage, he delivered a performance that financial markets had long been waiting to hear. No excuses. No appeals to forces beyond the Fed's control. The 2% inflation target, he declared, was the Federal Reserve's responsibility and the Federal Reserve's alone. The audience applauded. Currency traders sent the dollar higher. Bond investors flattened the yield curve. For a moment, markets suspended disbelief and bought into the story. Warsh had not yet slain inflation, but he had convinced the audience that the hero understood the plot and intended to see it through. The first act ended to rave reviews. Act II: The Sequel By July, the stage was set for the next installment. The July FOMC left rates unchanged, a development that surprised few in the audience. Markets had assigned only mo
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