美联储主席凯文·沃什与FOMC加息,36年历史揭示股市后续走向
美联储主席凯文·沃什和联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)刚刚上调了利率。 报道称,36年的历史数据清楚表明股市接下来会发生什么。
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美债收益率飙升施压美联储,FOMC会议前夕市场紧张
美债收益率隔夜持续飙升,给美联储带来压力。 市场关注周三FOMC会议,社区用户警告需做好准备。
FOMC Preview
The Tragedy or Comedy of Inflation (fyi – Hamlet is a tragedy) Act I: The Triumph The curtain rose on the June FOMC press conference with Kevin Warsh cast in the leading role. Stepping confidently to center stage, he delivered a performance that financial markets had long been waiting to hear. No excuses. No appeals to forces beyond the Fed's control. The 2% inflation target, he declared, was the Federal Reserve's responsibility and the Federal Reserve's alone. The audience applauded. Currency traders sent the dollar higher. Bond investors flattened the yield curve. For a moment, markets suspended disbelief and bought into the story. Warsh had not yet slain inflation, but he had convinced the audience that the hero understood the plot and intended to see it through. The first act ended to rave reviews. Act II: The Sequel By July, the stage was set for the next installment. The July FOMC left rates unchanged, a development that surprised few in the audience. Markets had assigned only mo
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How do I make free money arbing the FOMC in 2 hours
FedWatch ( https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html ) has a 25bps rate hike priced at 90.7% meanwhile Polymarket is showing 88%. Even better, no change is 9.3% on FedWatch and Polymarket is 12%, or a 30% difference. Does anyone know how to arb this trade? Where does FedWatch get it's data from? Is it based on bonds? There's a ton of liquidity and depth on both books (infinite depth in bonds and like $75 million+ across Polymarket US and international) so I could size up someone please answer me fast before FOMC in 2 hours proof of price atp attached.   submitted by   /u/throwaway431411 [link]   [comments]
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