$BETR: down 58% on a $229M mortgage lender and adding. The AI origination thesis, the balance sheet that could kill it, and the math to $100
$BETR: down 58% on a $229M mortgage lender and adding. The AI origination thesis, the balance sheet that could kill it, and the math to $100. Position: 1,479 shares. Unrealized: -58%. I am not going to bury the ticker. It is Better Home & Finance, NASDAQ: BETR, $12.17, $229M market cap, 19M shares outstanding. It traded at $94.06 in October 2025. It is the worst performing position I own and I think it is the best risk reward I own. Both of those are true at once, which is the whole post. The macro thesis first, because it is the floor under everything Most Americans have no money in the stock market. The only real asset they own is their house. They pay into it for thirty years and by retirement it has turned into wealth, and historically the return has been quite good. If homes stay unaffordable, most Americans end up with no long term asset at all. That is not a housing problem, it is a social stability problem, and it is the kind of problem political systems eventually respond
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