The market is pricing in almost no chance of a Fed hike this year, I think that's a mistake. Am I wrong?

Odds of a Fed rate hike by December have jumped a lot recently; CME data has it around 75%+ now, up from basically zero at the start of the year. Yet a lot of portfolios (and a lot of posts here) still feel positioned like cuts are still the base case. My read: oil back above $75 on the Iran situation, inflation just posted its highest print in years, wages are still outpacing target, and consumer spending hasn't slowed despite "soft" sentiment surveys. That's a setup where the Fed has cover to hike, not cut, especially with the labour market still tight on the surface even as the composition weakens. If I'm right, I'd expect: rate-sensitive growth/tech to get hit hardest, financials to actually benefit, and the "AI capex forever" trade to face its first real cost-of-capital test. Curious where I'm off base here. Is the market right to shrug this off, or is everyone still trading last year's playbook?   submitted by   /u/healinghands0 [link]   [comments]

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